Following President Joe Biden’s uncertain performance at the Thursday night debate against former President Donald Trump, discussions have surfaced among some Democrats about possibly replacing Biden as their candidate for the 2024 election. The process to replace a candidate is intricate and involves several potential scenarios.
Reuters sought insights from Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Democratic National Committee (DNC) member, and author of “Primary Politics.” This explainer, primarily based on her expertise, outlines the Democratic Party’s options.
Potential Paths for Replacement
As of now, the Democratic Party lacks a clear alternative plan for Biden, who ran largely unopposed for the presidential nomination. However, since Biden is not officially nominated until later this summer, there is still time for a change. This could happen if Biden voluntarily steps down, if he is challenged by other candidates, or if he withdraws post-convention, leaving the DNC to select a new nominee.
Immediate Next Steps
The immediate course of action hinges on Biden. He would need to agree to step aside or face a challenger willing to force the issue. Presently, Biden has shown no intention of withdrawing, and no direct challengers have emerged. Key figures like Vice President Kamala Harris and California Governor Gavin Newsom have publicly supported Biden, despite contrasting debate performances.
Delegate Dynamics if Biden Steps Down
Biden has accumulated nearly 4,000 Democratic delegates through primary elections. While delegates typically vote for the candidate they pledged to, they can vote according to their conscience if Biden steps down. This would open up a competition among Democratic candidates to secure these delegates’ votes.
Possible Successors
If Biden steps aside, several potential candidates could emerge, though there is no clear frontrunner. Vice President Harris, despite mixed reviews and polling numbers, would likely be a top contender. Other names include Governors Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, Andy Beshear, and JB Pritzker, all of whom currently support Biden’s campaign.
Nomination Process
In the event of Biden’s withdrawal, a competitive process among Democratic heavyweights would ensue. Candidates need signatures from 600 convention delegates to be nominated. If no candidate secures a majority, a “brokered convention” would occur, requiring multiple voting rounds to select a nominee. The last such instance for Democrats was in 1952.
Post-Convention Scenario
Should Biden step down after the August convention, the 435 DNC members would select a new candidate. This group, representing various constituency groups, would meet to decide the nominee.
Nominating an Alternative
To nominate a replacement, a candidate must garner support from a minimum number of DNC members, with the exact figure determined by the DNC’s rules committee. The process would involve nominating speeches, seconding speeches, and possibly multiple candidates before finalizing the nominee.
Vote Counting
The DNC would likely convene in Washington to count votes, either in person or virtually, depending on the timing relative to Election Day on November 5.